Origin of Smoke in the Record‐Breaking Air‐Pollution Event in New York, June 2023
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT During the fire season of 2023, extreme continuous wildfires in Canada exported smoke to distant areas. On June 6–8, record‐breaking smoke concentrations impacted human health and the environment in New York City (NYC) and its surroundings. In this work, for the first time, we incorporate Lagrangian airmass trajectories with Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecasts to trace back the origin of the smoke in NYC and identify the weather systems governing its transport. We locate the main smoke plume which originated from fires in Quebec. The smoke traveled at a height of about 500 hPa southward and descended slantwise to NYC behind a deep cyclone over the east coast. A second peak in smoke concentration in NYC emerged by air that circulated around the cyclone back to the city, collecting smoke again from the fires in Quebec. Smoke from the major fires in western Canada did not contribute significantly to the NYC event but was transported at tropopause level toward Europe. The findings highlight the critical role of synoptic‐scale systems in the transport of wildfire smoke.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it