Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores-organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens-remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long-term (2003-2022), large-scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre-processed the spore data by gap-filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches-ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed-effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4-23 days) and public health (22 days, 6-38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate-driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision-making.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".