Data-Driven Forecasting of Acute and Chronic Hepatitis B in Ukraine with Recurrent Neural Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reliable short-term forecasts of hepatitis B incidence are indispensable for sizing national vaccine and antiviral procurement. However, predictive modelling is complicated when surveillance streams experience reporting delays and episodic under-reporting, as has occurred in Ukraine since 2022. We address this challenge by training a deliberately compact two-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) network on 72 monthly observations (January 2018–December 2023) drawn from the Public Health Center electronic registry and evaluating performance on a strictly held-out 12-month horizon (January–December 2024). Grid-search optimisation selected a 12-month sliding input window, 64 hidden units per layer, 0.20 dropout, the Adam optimiser, and early stopping. Walk-forward validation showed that the network attained mean squared errors of 411 for acute infection and 76 for chronic infection on the monthly series. When forecasts were aggregated to the cumulative scale, the mean absolute percentage error remained below 1%. This study presents the first peer-reviewed hepatitis B forecasts calibrated on Ukraine’s registry during a period of pronounced reporting instability, demonstrating that robust accuracy is attainable without missing-value imputation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".