Can Machine Learning Support the Selection of Studies for Systematic Literature Review Updates?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[Background] Systematic literature reviews (SLRs) are essential for synthesizing evidence in Software Engineering (SE), but keeping them up-to-date requires substantial effort. Study selection, one of the most labor-intensive steps, involves reviewing numerous studies and requires multiple reviewers to minimize bias and avoid loss of evidence. [Objective] This study aims to evaluate if Machine Learning (ML) text classification models can support reviewers in the study selection for SLR updates. [Method] We reproduce the study selection of an SLR update performed by three SE researchers. We trained two supervised ML models (Random Forest and Support Vector Machines) with different configurations using data from the original SLR. We calculated the study selection effectiveness of the ML models for the SLR update in terms of precision, recall, and F-measure. We also compared the performance of human-ML pairs with human-only pairs when selecting studies. [Results] The ML models achieved a modest F-score of 0.33, which is insufficient for reliable automation. However, we found that such models can reduce the study selection effort by 33.9% without loss of evidence (keeping a 100% recall). Our analysis also showed that the initial screening by pairs of human reviewers produces results that are much better aligned with the final SLR update result. [Conclusion] Based on our results, we conclude that although ML models can help reduce the effort involved in SLR updates, achieving rigorous and reliable outcomes still requires the expertise of experienced human reviewers for the initial screening phase.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.633 | 0.903 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.013 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".