Plasma GDF15 affects long-term dementia risk and alters neuro-immune signaling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Growth/differentiation factor-15 (GDF15) is a secreted peptide hormone and cytokine that is strongly associated with dementia risk. However, the extent to which plasma GDF15 represents a biomarker and driver of dementia risk remains unclear. Across multiple cohorts, we demonstrated that plasma GDF15 is associated with greater dementia risk over 15-to 25-year follow-up periods when measured in midlife, with stronger associations observed for vascular dementia compared to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Two-sample Mendelian randomization supported plasma GDF15's mechanistic role in AD and related dementias, while cohort studies linked it to cerebral small vessel disease, diffuse neurodegeneration, phosphorylated tau, and a cerebrospinal fluid proteomic signature indicative of neuro-immune activation. Exposure of cultured myeloid cells to recombinant GDF15 altered biological pathways that we subsequently demonstrated are predictive of dementia risk, including interferon/antiviral responses, pyruvate metabolism, and scavenging of heme. These findings support circulating GDF15's role as an early biomarker - particularly for vascular dementia and neuroinflammation - and identify the mechanisms by which it may drive dementia risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".