El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts in a coffee growing region of Colombia and adaptations mechanisms among coffee producers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding the vulnerability of coffee production to shifting climate patterns is a global concern. In the Colombian Andes, specifically within the Chinchiná river basin (CRB), where the local economy relies heavily on coffee production, we investigate how coffee serves as a mediator between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local producers. Our qualitative/quantitative study at nine coffee farms focuses on the strong events of El Niño and La Niña during 2009–2010, 2010–2011, and 2015–2016. Monthly data from ground-based pluviometers and CHIRPS satellite-derived rainfall data, covering the entire study area, are integrated. Coupled with an examination of land surface temperature and vegetation activity using MODIS, we unveil relationships between climate, geography, and vegetation in this coffee-production zone. Orographic features significantly impact rainfall, concentrated in the most susceptible yet most suitable coffee area, which is also vulnerable to pest infestations enhanced by climate extremes. This research sheds light on socioeconomic and environmental dynamics, enhancing our understanding of how climate variability impacts production of coffee in the CRB.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".