Nomogram Based on the Most Relevant Clinical, CT, and Radiomic Features, and a Machine Learning Model to Predict EGFR Mutation Status in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: This study aimed to develop a nomogram based on the most relevant clinical, CT, and radiomic features comprising 11 key signatures (2 clinical, 2 CT-based, and 7 radiomic) for the non-invasive prediction of the EGFR mutation status and to support the timely initiation of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adenocarcinoma. Methods: Retrospective real-world data were collected from 521 patients with histologically confirmed NSCLC adenocarcinoma who underwent CT imaging and either surgical resection or pathological biopsy for EGFR mutation testing. Five Random Forest classification models were developed and trained on various datasets constructed by combining clinical, CT, and radiomic features extracted from CT image regions of interest (ROIs), with and without feature preselection. Results: The model trained exclusively on the most relevant clinical, CT, and radiomic features demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the other models, with strong discrimination between EGFR-mutant and wild-type cases (AUC = 0.88; macro-average = 0.90; micro-average = 0.89; precision = 0.90; recall = 0.94; F1-score = 0.91; and accuracy = 0.87). Conclusions: A nomogram constructed using a Random Forest model trained solely on the most informative clinical, CT, and radiomic features outperformed alternative approaches in the non-invasive prediction of the EGFR mutation status, offering a promising decision-support tool for precision treatment planning in NSCLC.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".