Association between cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic health metrics and long-term cardiovascular risk: Findings from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association (AHA) introduced the concept of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health and stage, reflecting the interaction among metabolism, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and the cardiovascular system. However, the association between CKM stage and the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been validated. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term CVD risk associated with CKM health metrics and CKM stage using data from a population-based cohort study. METHODS: In total, 5293 CVD-free participants were followed up to around 13 years in the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study (CMCS). Considering the pathophysiologic progression of CKM health metrics abnormalities (comprising obesity, central adiposity, prediabetes, diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, CKD, and metabolic syndrome), participants were divided into CKM stages 0, 1, and 2. The time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk associated with CKM health metrics and stage. Additionally, broader CVD outcomes were examined, with a specific assessment of the impact of stage 3 in 2581 participants from the CMCS-Beijing subcohort. RESULTS: Among participants, 91.2% (4825/5293) had at least one abnormal CKM health metric, 8.8% (468/5293), 13.3% (704/5293), and 77.9% (4121/5293) were in CKM stages 0, 1, and 2, respectively; and 710 incident CVD cases occurred during a median follow-up time of 13.3 years (interquartile range: 12.1 to 13.6 years). Participants with each poor CKM health metric exhibited significantly higher CVD risk. Compared with stage 0, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for CVD incidence was 1.31 (0.84-2.04) in stage 1 and 2.27 (1.57-3.28) in stage 2. Significant interactive impacts existed between CKM stage and age or sex, with higher CVD risk related to increased CKM stages in participants aged <60 years or females. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the contribution of CKM health metrics and CKM stage to the long-term risk of CVD, suggesting the importance of multi-component recognition and management of poor CKM health in CVD prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".