Semiparametric Transformation Models with a Change Point for Interval-Censored Failure Time Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Change point models are widely used in medical and epidemiological studies to capture the threshold effects of continuous covariates on health outcomes. These threshold effects represent critical points at which the relationship between biomarkers or risk factors and disease risk shifts, often reflecting underlying biological mechanisms or clinically relevant intervention points. While most existing methods focus on right-censored data, interval censoring is common in large-scale clinical trials and follow-up studies, where the exact event times are not observed but are known to fall within time intervals. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric transformation model with an unknown change point for interval-censored data. The model allows flexible transformation functions, including the proportional hazards and proportional odds models, and it accommodates both main effects and their interactions with the threshold variable. Model parameters are estimated via the EM algorithm, with the change point identified through a profile likelihood approach using grid search. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and evaluate their finite-sample performance through extensive simulations, showing good accuracy and coverage properties. The method is further illustrated through an application to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.054 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".