Echoes of uncertainty: Reimagining complexity of global risks in the shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the perception of global risks in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Based on cross-sectional survey data, significant differences were found in how respondents from both countries perceive various threats. Ukrainians expressed higher levels of concern across all risk categories, particularly those directly related to the conflict, such as military operations and energy shortages. The results of the principal component analysis (PCA) revealed three distinct factors in Ukraine, indicating a diversified perception of risks, while in Poland, a single factor was identified, suggesting an integrated understanding of threats. These structures can be interpreted through the lens of polycrisis in Ukraine, where different dimensions of risks are seen as interconnected, and metacrisis in Poland, where various risks are viewed as manifestations of a single, overarching crisis structure. The study underscores how geopolitical contexts can shape societal perceptions of threats. It also suggests that the concepts of polycrisis and metacrisis are not only useful theoretical tools for explaining the complexity of contemporary global challenges but also practical frameworks through which individuals reflexively interpret and engage with global risks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".