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Record W4413131852 · doi:10.5194/ecss2025-3

Europe's Elevated Mixed Layer: New Insights into the Spanish Plume

2025· preprint· en· W4413131852 on OpenAlexaff
David M. Schultz, Daniel J. Kirshbaum, Martin V. Young

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPlumePeninsulaGeologyClimatologyTroposphereTrough (economics)ConvectionAtmospheric sciencesMeteorologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The canonical Spanish plume is a synoptic pattern associated with deep moist convective storms over western continental Europe and the UK. A large-amplitude trough or cut-off low in the jet stream extending to low latitudes produces a long fetch of southerly or southwesterly deep tropospheric flow. The near-surface air passes across the heated elevated terrain of the Iberian Peninsula and travels into western Europe. Thus, the preconvective environment is characterized by an elevated mixed layer of hot dry air with steep lapse rates (i.e., the Spanish plume airstream) overtop a warm surface layer and capping inversion, resembling the loaded-gun convective sounding. A review of 102 journal articles mentioning the Spanish plume paints an unevidenced, inconsistent, unclear, and inaccurate picture. Some articles correctly employ the original definition of the Spanish plume airstream as the elevated mixed layer; others incorrectly apply the term to the surface (sometimes humid) airstream. Confusion extends to the origin of the airstream, which has been variously described as the Iberian Peninsula, northern Africa, or both, often unevidenced. Some air in so-called Spanish plumes does not even cross Spain. We examine a Spanish plume case from 1–2 July 2015. We calculate air-parcel trajectories to determine four airstreams responsible for the unstable thermodynamic profile over the UK: (1) a near-surface continental airstream transporting hot, moist boundary-layer air from France; (2) a lid (850-hPa) airstream descended from the mid-troposphere over the eastern North Atlantic and western Iberian Peninsula, initially warm and dry, but gradually cooling and moistening and rising while traveling northward, forming a layer of convective inhibition; (3) a subtropical airstream of hot, dry air with steep lapse rates traveling poleward from North Africa and the Mediterranean then ascending; and (4) a middle-latitude upper-level trough airstream traveling eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean then ascending. These results challenge the canonical Spanish plume synoptic pattern in three ways. First, most air reaching the UK does not travel over the Iberian Peninsula, particularly the near-surface air from France. Second, the steep lapse rates were pre-existing from the subtropics rather than created when passing over the Iberian Peninsula. Third, the lid results from subsidence rather than surface heating over the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, the synoptic-scale pattern appears to have a larger control over the thermodynamics of the Spanish plume airstream than heating from the Iberian Plateau, suggesting that the canonical conceptual model for the Spanish plume requires revision.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.063
Threshold uncertainty score0.125

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.037
GPT teacher head0.242
Teacher spread0.205 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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