A Canadian perspective on the May 2024 space weather event
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The May 2024 space weather disturbance is the latest (as of the time of writing) in a series of space weather events going back to 1859 that have documented impacts on critical infrastructure and technologies. Impacts on these systems range from minor degradation (e.g., static or noise in a communication link) to major, which was demonstrated by a complete blackout of the Hydro-Québec power system on 13 March 1989. This event heightened international awareness of space weather and motivated efforts toward enhanced resilience. This paper presents the May 2024 space weather event from a unique Canadian perspective, demonstrating the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre (CSWFC) approach to monitoring, forecasting, and alerting to characterize space weather phenomena and mitigate their impacts. Satellite data, numerical modelling of solar wind disturbances, and ground-based magnetometer and riometer data from instruments located in Canada demonstrate the progression of the event. In response to observations of enhanced solar activity, the CSWFC issued a major geomagnetic storm WATCH spanning an almost 3-day period, a major geomagnetic storm WARNING for more than 1 day that began at auroral latitudes but quickly expanded to cover all of Canada, and a solar proton WARNING for more than 2 days. Impacts to high-frequency communications and Global Navigation Satellite System positioning, navigation, and timing over Canada are evaluated using Transport Canada’s Civil Aviation Daily Occurrence Reporting System entries and reported outages of the Wide Area Augmentation System. This paper compares the May 2024 event with the March 1989 event and evaluates the latitude and magnetic local time distribution of the geomagnetic perturbations. In general, geomagnetic activity increased from southeastern to northwestern North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".