Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous modeling studies have indicated that Atmospheric rivers (ARs) will become more frequent in the warming climate. However, whether we have experienced more ARs during historical period is less studied. Here, we show that winter AR frequency has significantly increased over the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere from 1950-2022. Using station-based observations, we confirm that ARs have driven coherent long-term trends in both total and extreme precipitation over land. The warming-induced rise in atmospheric moisture alone accounts for an AR frequency increase of ~0.6-0.8% per decade. AR trends exhibit meridional dipolar patterns over western North America and Europe, governed by positive trends of the Pacific-North America Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation. The "Pineapple Express" ARs have been suppressed, declining of AR landfalling over the Pacific Northwest. Through atmospheric model analyses, we demonstrate that observed sea surface temperature changes dominate Atlantic AR trends, while exerting minor effects on Pacific AR trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".