Complementary Predictors for Asthma Attack Prediction in Children: Salivary Microbiome, Serum Inflammatory Mediators, and Past Attack History
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early identification of children at risk of asthma attacks is important for optimizing treatment strategies. We aimed to integrate salivary microbiome and serum inflammatory mediator profiles with asthma attacks history to develop a comprehensive predictive model for future attacks. METHODS: This study contained a discovery (SysPharmPediA) and a replication phase (U-BIOPRED). School-aged children with asthma were classified into at risk and no-risk groups, based on the presence or absence of one or more severe attacks during one-year follow-up. Prediction models were developed using random forest on the training set (70%) with data on past asthma attacks, microbiome composition, serum inflammatory mediator levels, and their combinations and then tested on the rest of the population (30%). Outcomes were replicated in a subset of children with severe asthma from U-BIOPRED. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 154 children (SysPharmPediA = 121, U-BIOPRED = 33). In discovery, the model based on past attacks resulted in an area under the receiving characteristic curve (AUROCC) ~ 0.7. Models including six salivary bacteria or six inflammatory mediators achieved similar results. The combined model incorporating seven features, past asthma attacks, Capnocytophaga, Corynebacterium, and Cardiobacterium, TIMP-4, VEGF, and MIP-3β achieved the highest accuracy with AUROCC ~0.87. The combined model in the U-BIOPRED limited to available inflammatory mediators (VEGF), and incorporating past asthma attacks, Capnocytophaga, Corynebacterium, and Cardiobacterium, resulted in an AUROCC of 0.84. CONCLUSION: Serum inflammatory mediators and salivary microbiome complement asthma attacks history for predicting future attacks. These results highlight the imperative for continued investigation into oral microbiota and its interaction with the immune system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".