Deep learning for disease outbreak prediction: a parallel LSTM-CNN model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Early warning signals (EWSs) are vital for implementing preventive measures before a disease turns into a pandemic. While new diseases exhibit unique behaviours, they often share fundamental characteristics from a dynamical systems perspective. Moreover, measurements during disease outbreaks are often corrupted by different noise sources, posing challenges for time-series classification (TSC) tasks. In this study, we address the problem of having a robust EWS for disease outbreak prediction using a parallel long short-term memory-convolutional neural network deep learning model in the domain of TSC. We employed two simulated datasets to train the model: one representing generated dynamical systems with randomly selected polynomial terms to model new disease behaviours, and another simulating noise-induced disease dynamics to account for noisy measurements. The model's performance was analysed using both simulated data from different disease models and real-world data, including influenza, COVID-19 and monkeypox. Results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms previous models and statistical indicators in most of the datasets, effectively providing EWSs of impending outbreaks across various scenarios. This study bridges advancements in deep learning with the ability to provide improved EWSs in noisy environments, making it highly applicable to real-world crises involving emerging disease outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".