Family history of fracture and fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update the FRAX® risk assessment tool
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the largest meta-analysis of international cohorts to date, a family history of fracture is confirmed as a significant BMD-independent predictor of future fracture risk. Parental and sibling histories of fracture carry the same significance for future fracture, including the impact of family hip fracture on future hip fracture risk. PURPOSE: We have undertaken a meta-analysis of international prospective cohorts to quantify the relationship between a family history of fracture and future fracture incidence. METHODS: The analysis dataset comprised 350,542 men and women from 42 cohorts in 29 countries followed for 2.8 million person-years. We investigated the relationship between family history of hip fracture or any fracture and the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), and hip fracture alone using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Models were adjusted for current age, sex, BMD, and follow-up time. RESULTS: As no difference in influence of family history of fracture was seen between genders, results are presented for men and women combined. A parental history of hip fracture was associated with a higher risk of incident fracture across all fracture outcome categories, with a stronger relationship with future hip fracture (hazard ratios (HR, 95% CI) for hip and MOF 1.37, 1.23-1.52 and 1.19, 1.12-1.27, respectively). Associations were slightly reduced but remained significant when additionally adjusted for BMD and did not vary by baseline offspring age, follow-up time, or parent affected. In a more limited analysis, parental history of any fracture or a sibling history of hip or any fracture showed similar associations to those observed with parental history of hip fracture. CONCLUSIONS: A family history of fracture is confirmed as a significant BMD-independent predictor of future fracture risk. While parental hip fracture appears the strongest factor for future hip fracture, a family history of other fractures might be appropriate for inclusion in future iterations of the FRAX tool.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.028 | 0.047 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.010 | 0.041 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".