The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR<sub>4</sub>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract On 2032 December 22, the 60 m diameter asteroid 2024 YR 4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon. Such an impact would release 6.5 MT TNT equivalent energy and produce a ∼1 km diameter crater. We estimate that up to 10 8 kg of lunar material could be liberated in such an impact by exceeding lunar escape speed. The current overall probability is about 1% that the asteroid will impact the Moon at a location such that more than 10% of the ejected material would accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days. If this were to occur, the lunar-ejecta-associated particle fluence at 0.1–10 mm sizes could produce up to several years of equivalent background meteoroid impact exposure to satellites in near-Earth space late in 2032. Our results demonstrate that planetary defense considerations should be more broadly extended to cislunar space and not confined solely to near-Earth space.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".