The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to relative sea-level rise and land subsidence along the Atlantic coast of Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We quantify the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to land subsidence and sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Using both geologic reconstructions of relative sea-level (RSL) change and geodetic determinations of vertical land motion, we assess GIA model accuracy and determine model parametric uncertainty. Seven ice history models and 440 spherically symmetric Earth viscosity models were used to explore the model parameter space. Our results indicate that the inferred earth model parameters are highly dependent on the barystatic component of the adopted ice sheet model. On the other hand, the modelled RSL output is relatively insensitive to variations in the ice thickness distribution of the Eurasian component of the ice history model. Of the two global ice models considered (ANU and ICE-6G) our results demonstrate the barystatic component of the ANU model to be more accurate. Model uncertainty was determined using data-model misfit values and a Bayesian approach to define a subset of parameter sets (1σ confidence). When considering the model uncertainty, 95 % of the Holocene RSL observations and 93 % of the present-day vertical land motion rates can be explained at this confidence level. Our results support previous work in showing that GIA-related subsidence along the Atlantic coast of Europe is dominated by ice-loading (peripheral bulge) effects and that ocean loading is also important in some areas, such as northwestern France. Using our subset of best-fitting parameter sets, we performed a sea-level budget analysis for the period 1957 to 1997 using data from 10 tide gauges in our study region and find that the sterodynamic signal is the largest contributor at most of the considered tide gauge sites, followed by contributions from GIA and glaciers. The GIA signal dominates the modelled uncertainty at all sites. Of the 10 tide gauge stations considered, the budget is closed at six (to within 2σ uncertainty). The largest residual was found for station Dieppe in northern France, with an unexplained signal of 3.8 ± 0.6 mm/yr, which appears to be related to localized subsidence at the tide gauge site.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".