New World, New Rules: Canadian Cyber Strategy in a Changing Threat Landscape
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The global expansion in reliance on information and communication technologies has thrust the world of cyberspace into the forefront of security studies and strategic discourse. Existing literature has sought to explore the cyber domain as an arena for competition amongst great powers, yet there remains a dearth of literature comprehensively evaluating middle powers in the cyber realm. Cyberspace confronts middle powers with distinct and critical security threats, while simultaneously offering opportunities to assert and expand their position in the global order. Thus, prior thinking surrounding strategic postures for middle powers must be reexamined with consideration given to cyber operations as a tool for statecraft and warfare. Canada, as a digitally advanced and connected middle power committed to upholding the status quo global order, offers a prime case study to explore the question: How can certain middle power states navigate the threat landscape of cyberspace to best protect and promote distinct and shared security interests? Here, I offer the argument for offensive cyber operations (OCOs) as a point of strategic focus, arguing that there is a strong theoretical and practical foundation for Canada to pursue and execute them effectively. I ground this assessment on the principles of ‘middlepowermanship’ and functionalism, discussing the constraints and opportunities afforded by the cyber domain that make a novel tailored approach for middle powers necessary, and why OCOs might best address this need. I closely evaluate the case of Canada, exploring proposed strategic initiatives and mandates alongside available quantitative and qualitative cyber data to evaluate how such developments are manifesting in cyberspace. I conclude that information to date indicates disappointing shortcomings in Canadian offensive cyber activity, but the robust argument for the merit of OCOs alongside promising changes in Canadian cyber organization support the call for continued development, focus and execution of OCOs moving forward.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.033 | 0.015 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.020 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".