Empty Shelves: Tracking the Flow of Goods During Ancient Climate Crises in Central Anatolia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Archaeological investigations of ancient climate change have become an important focus for many researchers. A number of studies have focused on scientific techniques to identify the intricate details of the event, and the subsequent impact of these climatic changes on the ecological landscape. These more scientifically oriented studies have allowed the present authors to investigate a more subtle impact on the landscape: trade disruption during ancient climate crises viewed from the rural settlement of Çadır Höyük on the north central Anatolian plateau. The ebb and flow of trade networks in the past can be tied to many external sociopolitical and socioeconomic factors that may have had little to do with the air outside. We investigate here whether climate change was a significant factor that interfered with trade networks during three periods: The 4th millennium BCE Late Chalcolithic (the 5.2 ka climatic event); the late 2nd millennium BCE (3.2 ka climatic event); and the Medieval Warm Period from the 10th to the 13th century CE. This study presents the evidence for regular, and sometimes robust, trade or provision of goods and resources prior to these three climate events, and the disruption or dissolution of these during the height of each climate crisis, particularly in the earlier two periods; in the last period, climate variability was only one of many factors affecting trade networks on the plateau. We profile how the residents of ancient Çadır Höyük managed these intermittent “empty shelves” and filled in gaps using local resources and ingenuity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".