Learning ecosystem-scale dynamics from microbiome data with MDSINE2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although dynamical systems models are a powerful tool for analysing microbial ecosystems, challenges in learning these models from complex microbiome datasets and interpreting their outputs limit use. We introduce the Microbial Dynamical Systems Inference Engine 2 (MDSINE2), a Bayesian method that learns compact and interpretable ecosystems-scale dynamical systems models from microbiome timeseries data. Microbial dynamics are modelled as stochastic processes driven by interaction modules, or groups of microbes with similar interaction structure and responses to perturbations, and additionally, noise characteristics of data are modelled. Our open-source software package provides multiple tools for interpreting learned models, including phylogeny/taxonomy of modules, and stability, interaction topology and keystoneness. To benchmark MDSINE2, we generated microbiome timeseries data from two murine cohorts that received faecal transplants from human donors and were then subjected to dietary and antibiotic perturbations. MDSINE2 outperforms state-of-the-art methods and identifies interaction modules that provide insights into ecosystems-scale interactions in the gut microbiome.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".