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Incidence Of Hypothermia And Modest Hyperthermia Within European Aquatics Open Water Swimming Competition

2025· article· en· W4414226277 on OpenAlexaff
Kate Markey, Chris Esh, Natalia Galán-López, Margo Mountjoy, Bryna Chrismas, Naama Constantini, Lee Taylor

Bibliographic record

VenueMedicine & Science in Sports & Exercise · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicCardiovascular Effects of Exercise
Canadian institutionsMcMaster University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsHypothermiaOpen waterIncidence (geometry)Hyperthermia

Abstract

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Elite open water swimming (OWS) competition is conducted within a broad water temperature (Tw) range (World Aquatic Tw: 16-31 °C), where heat (hyperthermia) and cold (hypothermia) related medical events (including fatalities) and race dropouts (DNF) occur. Attributed to the thermodynamic properties of water (increased convection/conduction) and human thermoregulatory (Treg) maladaptations (blunted sweat evaporation) that occur during submersion in water [for context modest deviations (± 0.5-2 °C) in core temperature (Tc) can impair performance and health]. PURPOSE: Characterise Tc responses (ingestible thermometry) in OWS competition. METHODS: In-race Tc was measured [n = 34, 14 ♀; 41 discrete athlete data sets, 15 ♀; 19 (3.3) y] at the 2023/24 European Aquatics (EA) Open Water Cup (Leg 4: Tw 18.2 °C, COLD1; Leg 1: Tw 19.5 °C, COLD2; Leg 5: Tw 18.9 °C, COLD3) and the 2023 EA Junior OWS Championships (Tw 25.5 °C, WARM). Associations between performance time, sex and Tc were analysed using linear mixed models [Tc data for COLD1,2,3 are collapsed as there were no differences (P = .316-.602) between COLD1,2,3; referred to as COLD]. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in peak Tc between WARM and COLD (P = .01). Divergent Tc responses were seen within competition (COLD1 and COLD2). Specifically, modest hyperthermia [Tc 38.5-39.5 °C - COLD1 (2 of 7 participants); COLD2 (5 of 13); COLD3 (4 of 9) and WARM (9 of 12)] and hypothermia [Tc <35 °C - COLD1 (1 of 7), COLD2 (1 of 13; 2 of 13 DNF)] - see Table 1 for Tc specifics. Peak Tc in COLD (P = .911) and WARM (P = .410); minimum Tc in COLD (P = .464) and WARM (P = .560); and mean Tc in COLD (P = .494) and WARM (P = .302) had no association with race time (nor sex: P = .342-.744). CONCLUSION: Divergent Tc responses were evident within the same competition/Tw (e.g., within COLD1 and COLD2). OWS specific Treg focused education, including preparation strategies (acclimation/acclimatisation), appear prudent to protect athlete health and performance. Table 1. - Core Temperature Responses In-Race COLD1 (n = 7, 3 ♀) COLD2 (n = 13, 6 ♀) COLD3 (n = 9, 3 ♀) WARM (n = 12, 3 ♀) Race Start Tc (°C) 37.6 (0.2); 37.4-37.9 37.8 (0.2); 37.5-38.3 37.7 (0.3); 37.2-38.2 37.8 (0.5); 36.7-38.1 Mean in-race Tc (°C) 37.6 (1.2); 35.3-38.7 37.7 (0.8); 36.1-38.7 38.1 (0.5); 37.4-38.9 38.1 (0.7); 36.7-39.1 Race Finish Tc (°C) 37.5 (1.2); 35.5-38.8 37.9 (0.9); 36.5-39.2 37.9 (1.1); 36.2-39.2 38.2 (0.7); 36.4-39.4 Peak Tc (°C) 38.4 (0.5); 37.5-39.0 38.3 (0.5); 37.5-39.0 38.5 (0.7); 37.7-39.5 38.8 (0.4); 38.2-39.5 Minimum Tc (°C) 36.9 (1.0); 35.0-37.9 37.1 (1.0); 34.7-38.3 37.3 (0.6); 36.1-38.2 37.6 (1.2); 35.8-38.1 Pre-post change Tc (°C) -0.1 (1.2); -2.0-1.2 0.1 (0.9); -1.6-1.2 0.2 (0.9); -1.3-1.7 0.4 (0.9); -1.7-1.8 Data are presented as mean or median (standard deviation or IQR); range, depending on their parametric nature. Pre to post change in Tc does not include competitors who DNF. All other Tc variables include data for those who DNF recorded until the last known point of swimming. Supported by: This project was funded by European Aquatics (LEN).

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.265
Threshold uncertainty score0.709

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.002
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.014
GPT teacher head0.280
Teacher spread0.266 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Published2025
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