Catching up with stagnation: cause-specific dynamics of change in life expectancy at age 65 in the United States, Canada, and Latin America, 2000–2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Recent focus on United States longevity stagnation at higher ages has focused on comparisons with other high-income countries, with less attention paid to its performance relative to peer nations in the Americas. This study examines changes in life expectancy at age 65 (LE65) in the United States, Canada, and seven Latin American countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru-between 2000 and 2019, disaggregated by sex and cause of death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This observational study used United Nations World Population Prospects life tables and World Health Organization death causes data, applying decomposition methods to assess the contribution of death causes to changes in LE65. RESULTS: United States, Canada, and Costa Rica experienced substantial increases in LE65 during 2000-2010 in both sexes, with gains ranging from 1.3 to 2 years. These gains were primarily driven by reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, which contributed between 1 and 1.3 years to LE65 growth, widening the gap with some Latin American countries. From 2010 to 2019, the contribution of CVD to LE65 more than halved (and the relative contribution of CVD to gains in LE65 diminished in the United States, Canada and Mexico), and total gains in LE65 stagnated between 0.5 and 1 years. Females presented a higher relative contribution of CVD to changes in LE65 than males. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The stagnation in LE65 observed across the Americas during 2010-2019 highlights the need for developing national, sex-specific strategies to reduce cardiovascular mortality across countries in the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".