Longitudinal association of early axial spondyloarthritis status at the time of diagnosis with disease activity over time: 10-year results from the GESPIC cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Recently, the definition for 'early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA)' was developed by the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS), including ≤2 years of axial symptoms as a key element. The aim of this study was to analyse the longitudinal association of early axSpA with achieving low disease activity or inactive disease. METHODS: Using 10-year longitudinal data from the German Spondyloarthritis Inception Cohort (GESPIC), a generalised estimating equations model was fitted to estimate the effect of early axSpA on disease activity, as measured by the Axial Spondyloarthritis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS). The model adjusted for confounders identified through a directed acyclic graph and accounted for repeated measurements within patients. Additional analyses were conducted, including stratification by radiographic status (non-radiographic-nr or radiographic-r). RESULTS: Of 525 patients (277 nr-axSpA, 248 r-axSpA) included in GESPIC, 161 (30%) fulfilled the ASAS early axSpA consensus definition (115 nr-axSpA and 46 r-axSpA) at baseline. Over the 10-year follow-up period, patients with early axSpA consistently achieved ASDAS states of inactive disease or low disease activity at a higher rate than those with non-early axSpA, rising from 41% versus 30% at baseline to 57% versus 44% at year 10. The total effect of early axSpA on ASDAS was -0.42 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.26). Stratification by r-axSpA/nr-axSpA showed a total effect of -0.50 (95% CI: -0.81 to -0.19) for r-axSpA and -0.28 (95% CI: -0.46 to -0.10) for nr-axSpA. CONCLUSION: Fulfilment of the ASAS early axSpA definition at inclusion was associated with lower disease activity over 10 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".