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Record W4414484324 · doi:10.1136/rmdopen-2025-005948

Longitudinal association of early axial spondyloarthritis status at the time of diagnosis with disease activity over time: 10-year results from the GESPIC cohort

2025· article· en· W4414484324 on OpenAlexaff
David Kiefer, Imke Redeker, Murat Torğutalp, Valeria Ríos Rodríguez, Judith Rademacher, Fabian Proft, Mikhail Protopopov, Hildrun Haibel, Joachim Sieper, Martín Rudwaleit, Xenofon Baraliakos, Denis Poddubnyy

Bibliographic record

VenueRMD Open · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSpondyloarthritis Studies and Treatments
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
FundersBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungEli Lilly and CompanyAmgen
KeywordsAxial spondyloarthritisCohortDiseaseAnkylosing spondylitisAssociation (psychology)Cohort studyLongitudinal studySpondylarthritis

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

OBJECTIVE: Recently, the definition for 'early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA)' was developed by the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS), including ≤2 years of axial symptoms as a key element. The aim of this study was to analyse the longitudinal association of early axSpA with achieving low disease activity or inactive disease. METHODS: Using 10-year longitudinal data from the German Spondyloarthritis Inception Cohort (GESPIC), a generalised estimating equations model was fitted to estimate the effect of early axSpA on disease activity, as measured by the Axial Spondyloarthritis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS). The model adjusted for confounders identified through a directed acyclic graph and accounted for repeated measurements within patients. Additional analyses were conducted, including stratification by radiographic status (non-radiographic-nr or radiographic-r). RESULTS: Of 525 patients (277 nr-axSpA, 248 r-axSpA) included in GESPIC, 161 (30%) fulfilled the ASAS early axSpA consensus definition (115 nr-axSpA and 46 r-axSpA) at baseline. Over the 10-year follow-up period, patients with early axSpA consistently achieved ASDAS states of inactive disease or low disease activity at a higher rate than those with non-early axSpA, rising from 41% versus 30% at baseline to 57% versus 44% at year 10. The total effect of early axSpA on ASDAS was -0.42 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.26). Stratification by r-axSpA/nr-axSpA showed a total effect of -0.50 (95% CI: -0.81 to -0.19) for r-axSpA and -0.28 (95% CI: -0.46 to -0.10) for nr-axSpA. CONCLUSION: Fulfilment of the ASAS early axSpA definition at inclusion was associated with lower disease activity over 10 years.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.017
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.011
GPT teacher head0.268
Teacher spread0.257 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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