Using climate change metrics to inform conservation of Canada's Priority Places for Species at Risk
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Canadian federal government, in collaboration with the provinces and territories, agreed to implement the Pan-Canadian Approach to Transforming Species at Risk Conservation in Canada in 2018. Under this approach, 11 priority places were selected based on their biodiversity, concentrations of species at risk, and opportunities to advance conservation. Understanding the potential exposure of priority places to climate change is critical to inform effective conservation action. However, climate change makes threat assessments challenging because species respond in diverse and sometimes unpredictable ways to factors like rising temperatures and extreme weather events. We quantified potential changes across Canada's priority places using metrics representing multidimensional aspects of climate change. All priority places are projected to experience substantial change across multiple bioclimatic variables, but the nature of change differs. Annually, priority places in the west and east may experience higher precipitation, while central prairie priority places may become hotter and drier. Seasonally, western priority places may have hot and dry summers, while in the east, summer precipitation might increase and the highest temperature increase will occur during winter. Priority places with more complex topography may have capacity to function as climate refugia. These results will inform existing decision-making processes, threat assessments, and implementation of climate-informed conservation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".