Validation of phenology models for <i>Halyomorpha halys</i> (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) using field data from climatically different ecoregions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Halyomorpha halys (Stål), an invasive species of Asian origin, has become a key pest of tree fruit in areas of the Eastern and Pacific Northwest United States. This study used a 5-yr dataset of pheromone trap captures from 4 ecoregions (Mountains, Piedmont, Southeastern Plains, and Atlantic Coastal Plain) of North Carolina to validate temperature-driven phenology models previously reported for oviposition by overwintering adults and eclosion of F1 adults using semi-field cage studies. Cumulative proportion of pheromone trap captures of F1 adults and nymphs over cumulative degree days was compared to predictions based on the previously reported models' quadratic equation curves for adult eclosion (y = -0.0000015x2 + 0.004736x - 2.664) and oviposition (y = 0.0000032x2 - 0.010853x + 9.050). The oviposition model was validated using projected oviposition curves to predict nymphal populations over time by using life stage-specific development and mortality rates. Analysis of coefficients of determination (R2) for all regressions showed that F1 adult model predictions varied by region and year. Mean R2 values in the Mountain, Piedmont, and Southeastern Plains ecoregions for F1 adults were 0.88, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Nymphal regressions also varied by ecoregion, with mean R2 values of 0.95, 0.86, and 0.88 in the Mountains, Piedmont, and Southeastern Plains, respectively. Differences among regions were mostly associated with lower R2 values at sites with low population densities. Results are discussed in relation to the value of these models in studying the ecology of invasive species and in informing pest management decisions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".