Using Time Dependent Rate Analysis to Evaluate the Quality of Machine Learned Reaction Coordinates for Biasing and Computing Kinetics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High Resolution Image Download MS PowerPoint Slide Having an accurate reaction coordinate (RC) is essential for reliable kinetic characterization of molecular processes, but there are few quantitative metrics to evaluate RC quality. In this study, we consider the dimensionless γ metric from the Exponential Average Time-dependent Rate (EATR) method, which represents the fraction of a biasing potential along the RC that contributes to increasing the rate constant. We demonstrate that γ can be used to test whether the utility of a RC for predicting kinetics with a Metadynamics bias improves as the coordinate is iteratively updated to include new data. We evaluate RCs approximated via the iterative State Predictive Information Bottleneck (SPIB) approach, which was previously shown to be accurate across six protein–ligand dissociation systems. For these same systems, we compute γ values and mean accelerated times τ̅ accel . After systematically scanning over fitting parameters, the results show that γ increases closer to 1, while τ̅ accel decreases, revealing a consistent inverse correlation. These results demonstrate that γ serves as a practical criterion for RC evaluation and offers guidance for selecting SPIB–derived coordinates yielding quantitative kinetic predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".