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Record W4414980920 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2510.05979

Near-continuous tracking of solar active region NOAA 13664 over three solar rotations

2025· preprint· en· W4414980920 on OpenAlexaff
I. Kontogiannis, Yuhang Zhu, Krzysztof Barczyński, Muriel Zoë Stiefel, Hannah Collier, James McKevitt, J. S. Castellanos Durán, S. V. Berdyugina, L. K. Harra

Bibliographic record

VenueArXiv.org · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicSolar and Space Plasma Dynamics
Canadian institutionsInstitute of Particle Physics
FundersEuropean Regional Development FundMax-Planck-GesellschaftInstituto de Astrofísica de AndalucíaCentre National d’Etudes SpatialesEuropean CommissionAgencia Estatal de InvestigaciónStanford Bio-XNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
KeywordsSolar rotationSolar observatorySolar flareOrbiterFlux (metallurgy)Solar minimumTracking (education)FlareRotation (mathematics)Coronal mass ejection

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Magnetic flux emergence and decay in the Sun span from days to months. However, their tracking is typically limited to about half a solar rotation when relying on single-vantage-point observations. Combining observations from both the Earth-facing and far side of the Sun, we monitored the magnetic and coronal evolution and characterised the non-potentiality of one of the most complex and eruptive regions of the past two decades, over more than three full solar rotations. We used photospheric magnetograms and EUV filtergrams from the Solar Orbiter and the Solar Dynamics Observatory along with flare detections from the GOES and the STIX instrument on board the Solar Orbiter. All images were deprojected into a common coordinate system and merged into a unified dataset. We tracked the evolution of magnetic flux and EUV emission and computed magnetic field parameters from the line-of-sight magnetograms to quantify the region's non-potentiality. We identified the region's initial emergence and followed its evolution through to its decay. The region developed through successive flux emergence episodes over a period of 20 days, reached its peak complexity one month after the first emergence, and gradually decayed over the subsequent two months. Unlike many complex regions, it consistently maintained high levels of non-potentiality for most of its lifetime, sustaining equally strong flaring activity. The derived time series of non-potentiality parameters, the first of their kind, far exceeded the typical 14-day window imposed by solar rotation and were remarkably consistent, exhibiting strong correlation with the flaring activity of the region. Multi-vantage-point observations can significantly improve our understanding of how magnetic flux emerges, evolves, and drives solar activity, beyond the two-week limit imposed by solar rotation on observations along the Sun-Earth line.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.049
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.266
Teacher spread0.242 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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