Ecosystems mediate climate impacts on northern hemisphere seabirds
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ecosystem structure and biophysical processes mediate biological responses to climate changes, but few studies have examined impacts of this dynamic among upper trophic levels. We investigated ecosystem differences in how diverse seabird populations across the northern hemisphere have responded to changes in regional mixed layer temperature and water column stratification. Using 138 time series of breeding productivity over the past half-century, we show that seabird reproductive productivity has declined in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific during a period of ubiquitous mixed layer warming and regionally-variable stratification trends. Models of breeding productivity and ocean drivers show that seabird responses to climate change vary by ecosystem. Additionally, ecosystems in which seabirds exhibit detectibly declining productivity tend to have lower overall diet diversity across seabird species. These findings emphasize the importance of ecosystem processes and structure in determining the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. Diet diversity across northern hemisphere ecosystems affects seabird responses to climate change, with breeding productivity declining in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific from 1993 to 2019, based on 138 time series of breeding success and linear mixed effects models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".