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Record W4415209982 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-4024

Modelling of temporal and spatial trends in soil conditions in Finland using HydroBlocks model

2025· preprint· en· W4415209982 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Emma-Riikka Kokko, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Daniel Guyumus, Luiz Bacelar, Laura Torres‐Rojas, Jarkko Okkonen

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicPeatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersVäisälän RahastoAcademy of Finland
KeywordsSnowSubarctic climatePermafrostFrost (temperature)Water contentArcticClimate changeSoil water

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract. The changing Arctic climate alters the dynamics of melting and freezing in the ground. An increasing number of frost quakes have been reported in boreal regions such as Finland and Canada, which can cause damage to infrastructure by fracturing roads and built structures. A methodology has been developed to assess frost quakes by estimating thermal stresses in the soil in Oulu, Finland. Information on temporally and spatially varying soil properties, such as soil temperature and soil ice content, is required to calculate thermal stress. Further developing this methodology on a larger scale, over Finland, is challenging due to a lack of in-situ measurements of these parameters with high spatial and temporal coverage. However, they can be simulated using land surface models, one of which is HydroBlocks. Previously, HydroBlocks has been applied in the contiguous United States. The goal of this paper was to configure the model in subarctic and arctic Finland. HydroBlocks' ability to produce accurate snow accumulation and melt approximations, as well as estimate soil temperature and soil water content at different depths in Finland, has not been evaluated before. In addition, maps and time series of soil ice content in Finland at different depths were produced. The snow model (snow water equivalent) and the modeled soil temperatures and soil water contents were compared with the observational data to evaluate the model performance. From the calibrated model, for six observational SWE stations, the average RMSE and KGE were 43 mm and 0.07, respectively. The worst KGE was -0.88, and the best was 0.78. From the calibrated model, for the three observational soil stations, the soil temperature had an average RMSE and KGE of 2.2 °C and 0.66, respectively. The worst KGE was 0.41, and the best was 0.89. For the soil water content, the average RMSE and KGE were first, 0.15 volvol and -4.88, and after calibration, they were reduced to 0.07 volvol and -0.75, respectively. For the calibrated model, the worst KGE was -2.2, and the best was 0.08. The modelling results emphasize the importance of calibrating the model with local soil hydraulic parameters. The modeling results indicate that outputs from HydroBlocks can generally predict soil conditions in Finland. Furthermore, the obtained soil temperature and soil ice content can be used to calculate thermal stresses in soils and identify frost quake-prone areas regionally across Finland over recent decades, ultimately estimating the risk caused by frost quakes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.092
Threshold uncertainty score0.182

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.033
GPT teacher head0.269
Teacher spread0.236 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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