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Record W4415269018 · doi:10.1101/2025.10.15.682516

MAP-PRS: Multi-Ancestry Portfolio-Based Polygenic Risk Scores

2025· preprint· W4415269018 on OpenAlexaff
Lokendra Thakur, Gurpreet Bharj

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025
Typepreprint
Language
FieldMedicine
TopicGenetic factors in colorectal cancer
Canadian institutionsInstitute of Infection and Immunity
FundersFeinberg School of MedicineIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNorthwestern UniversityBeckman Research Institute, City of HopeMassachusetts General HospitalNational Science Foundation
KeywordsReliability (semiconductor)Stability (learning theory)Risk assessmentPredictive modellingBayesian probabilityPolygenic risk scoreClinical Practice

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) are emerging tools for predicting an individual’s genetic risk for complex diseases. However, their usefulness in clinical practice remains limited because most existing models are based on data from people of European ancestry, leading to reduced accuracy and stability in other populations. This imbalance restricts the equitable use of PRS in precision medicine. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Multi-Ancestry Portfolio-Based Polygenic Risk Scores (MAP-PRS) —a new framework that combines mathematical modeling and data science principles to improve both fairness and reliability in genetic risk prediction across populations. MAP-PRS treats each ancestry-specific PRS as part of a “portfolio,” similar to how investments are managed in finance, balancing two key aspects: predictive return (how well the score predicts disease) and risk complexity (how uncertain or ancestry-specific the prediction is). By jointly optimizing these factors, MAP-PRS identifies the best combination of ancestry-informed PRS models that maximize predictive accuracy while minimizing bias and instability. This approach also uses advanced computational tools—such as Bayesian modeling, machine learning, and generative neural networks—to refine risk estimates, incorporate environmental and lifestyle factors, and increase representation from under-studied populations. In doing so, MAP-PRS supports more inclusive, equitable, and interpretable precision medicine. As an initial demonstration, MAP-PRS has been applied to predict Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) risk in European ancestry populations, establishing a foundation for broader, multi-ancestry implementation. Future extensions will include additional diseases, such as cervical cancer and HPV susceptibility, endometrioid ovarian cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease—bringing us closer to clinically actionable and globally equitable genetic risk prediction.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.021
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.006
Threshold uncertainty score0.031

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.021
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0030.002
Open science0.0020.003
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.267
Teacher spread0.243 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)→Same topicGenetic factors in colorectal cancer→French-language works237,207→