Do Ocean Dynamics Contribute to Coastal Floods? A Case Study of the Shelfbreak Jet and Coastal Sea Level Along Southern New England (U.S.)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Ocean dynamics related to large‐scale circulation, such as the Gulf Stream, and smaller local ocean currents are an important driver of coastal sea‐level variability along the U.S. East Coast. A relevant circulation feature in Southern New England is the Shelfbreak Jet (SBJ). The SBJ flows equatorward from the Labrador Sea toward the Gulf Stream at Cape Hatteras, following the shelf break along the Northeast U.S. Coast. The SBJ and sea level are highly correlated along the Southern New England Coast, especially at timescales of 1–15 days. Since this frequency band coincides with meteorological timescales, we explore the implications for coastal flooding. We find that SBJ transport explains, on average, about 30% of the storm surge variance along Southern New England, in a statistical sense. For a specific Nor'easter storm in March 2018, SBJ dynamics are responsible for more than 90% of the storm‐surge height observed during a flood 4 days after the peak of the storm. Our results suggest local ocean dynamics are an important component of storm surges in Southern New England and can contribute, in some cases, to lingering flooding after a storm has passed. Thus, our results suggest that focusing only on large‐scale circulation, such as the Gulf Stream or meridional overturning, may not be complete for understanding the dynamics essential for coastal impacts. We recommend that the role of local ocean dynamics in floods should be investigated further in other regions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".