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Record W4415595776 · doi:10.1073/pnas.2509247122

Geochronology of the Early Triassic based on coupled Bayesian zircon eruption age and Bayesian age–depth models

2025· article· en· W4415595776 on OpenAlexaff
Xu Dai, Maria Ovtcharova, Joshua H.F.L. Davies, Huyue Song, Xiaokang Liu, Zhiwei Yuan, Yiran Cao, Ruoyu Bai, Daoliang Chu, Jacopo Dal Corso, Arnaud Brayard, Shouyi Jiang, Luyi Miao, Yong Du, Haijun Song

Bibliographic record

VenueProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeological and Geochemical Analysis
Canadian institutionsUniversité du Québec à Montréal
FundersNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsGeochronologyZirconExcursionBayesian probabilitySeries (stratigraphy)Extinction eventEarly TriassicPhanerozoic

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Precise and accurate geochronology is essential for reconstructing Earth's history and coeval life evolution. The Early Triassic was a critical time interval following the greatest Phanerozoic mass extinction, recording remarkable biotic changes and a series of environmental and climatic upheavals. Its geochronology remains, however, rather poorly constrained and highly debated. Here, we present high-precision zircon U-Pb dates for four ash beds from the Induan in South China, along with carbon isotope data. We use coupled Bayesian eruption age and Bayesian age-depth models to estimate the ages of our ash beds and to reinterpret the published ages of 25 ash beds from other four sections in South China, as well as to construct new age-depth models for each section. Our new age-depth models, integrated with biostratigraphic data, yield new age estimates for the following boundaries: Permian-Triassic (~251.867 Ma), Griesbachian-Dienerian (~251.562 Ma), Induan-Olenekian (~250.626 Ma), Smithian-Spathian (~249.236 Ma), and Olenekian-Anisian (~246.979 Ma). Calibration of the Early Triassic carbon isotopic record using the new age model reveals highly variable rates of individual carbon isotope excursions. For instance, the negative excursion across the Permian-Triassic boundary exhibits a rate of approximately -11.7‰ per 100 kyr-nearly seven times faster than the early Smithian negative excursion rate of approximately -1.7‰ per 100 kyr. This refined age model also provides a robust temporal framework to evaluate the tempo of biotic evolution in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.021
Threshold uncertainty score0.041

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.028
GPT teacher head0.251
Teacher spread0.223 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations9
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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