Spatiotemporal Variability of Dendroecological Indicators in Pedunculate Oak ( <i>Quercus robur</i> L.) Tree‐Rings Across Europe in Relation to Species Distribution Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate is a primary, but non-stationary, driver of tree growth. Climate change is altering the sensitivity of forest growth to water availability and temperature over time. It is considered that pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) will cope with the changing climatic conditions in Europe in the near future. However, while species distribution models project expansion zones, they also identify reductions in occurrence at the dry and warm distribution margins. Whereas species distribution models primarily rely on occurrence data, tree rings-given their long-term perspective and their use in empirical models-can provide a mechanistic view of forest growth dynamics, including temporally changing climate responses. Increased climate sensitivity and growth synchrony are key dendroecological indicators of tree stress. Here, we used an unprecedented network of 150 Q. robur sites (over 3300 trees), covering the full projected range of contracting to persistent areas across Europe, to assess the dendroecological indicators over recent decades in relation to species distribution model predictions. We reveal that oaks in areas projected to experience range contraction exhibited greater sensitivity to current growing season climatic conditions, whereas those in persistence areas responded more strongly to previous season conditions. Growth synchrony among trees was higher in the contraction areas, but showed no significant increasing trend over the last 70 years, as expected from ecotone theory. Temporal shifts in climate sensitivity were stronger for temperature and vapor pressure deficit in the persistence areas, whereas the climatic water balance gained importance in the contraction zones. These findings suggest that Q. robur growth is not yet being severely affected by climate change, and that the species is currently coping well with the climate changes, even in regions with projected range contractions, thereby challenging statistically derived scenarios of range shift based on species distribution models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".