High-resolution forest and fire dynamics from Fish Lake, New Brunswick, Canada, during the last millennium
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Acadian Forest is a mixed-wood forest covering the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Picea rubens (red spruce) is its signature species which has been prominent for circa 2000 years. We extracted a 124 cm surface core from Fish Lake, (46° 8′ 38.32″N, 66° 53′ 12.64″ W), near Fredericton, New Brunswick. A rplum age-depth model, based upon 4 14 C and 15 210 Pb dates, showed that the core bottom dates to AD 890. We performed a high-resolution pollen analysis on this core at a ~10 year resolution (125 samples total). Over the last millennium, Betula (birch), Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and Fagus grandifolia (American beech) declined, as Pinus sp. (pine), Abies balsamea (fir) and Picea sp.(spruce), including P. rubens increased. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA – AD 900–1400), Little Ice Age (LIA – AD 1400–1850), and the European settlement period were clearly demarcated in the pollen record. A rise in Ambrosia (ragweed) marked early Acadian French agriculture at ~AD 1680. During the last 300 years of the European period, Poaceae (grasses), Ambrosia , and other herbs all increased, while Pinus strobus (eastern white pine) declined. Macrocharcoal analysis showed that natural forest fires had a continuous presence over the past millennium, with higher fire frequency during the LIA than in the MCA. The MCA had an average spring temperature of 3.2°C, and the LIA had an average spring temperature of 2.2°C.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".