Understanding changes in iceberg–ship coexistence throughout the eastern Canadian Arctic: 2012–2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Icebergs present a known hazard to ships operating in ice-infested waters. As iceberg production rates vary, potentially compounded by climate change, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the extent to which icebergs pose navigational hazards. In this study, we explore the relationship between historic ship tracks derived from Automatic Identification System and iceberg drift locations obtained from in situ satellite trackers and the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration, and Detection Database. Using an iceberg–ship coexistence index we quantify this relationship throughout the eastern Canadian Arctic (ECA) from 2012 to 2019. Comparing 2012–2015 to 2016–2019, the total number of unique vessels operating in the ECA more than doubled. At the same time, icebergs were consistently observed throughout the entire ECA, specifically in Nares Strait, eastern Lancaster Sound, and east of Baffin Island. Regions where the largest increases in both icebergs and ships occurred were along the east coast of Baffin Island and east of Bylot Island, most often involving dry bulk vessels, and in Smith Sound between Ellesmere Island and NW Greenland involving passenger vessels. Recent reductions in the mean ice strengthening of ships operating in the ECA means the seriousness of any potential iceberg collision is likely increasing towards present day.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".