Temporal assessment of cumulative impacts from interacting disturbances of wildfires and lake-level changes on a small lake in the Western Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analysed long-term ecosystem change in a small lake in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands (Northwest Territories, Canada). Lake 2B (unofficial name) has a history of polycyclic thaw slumping, associated with oligotrophic, clearwater conditions in this region. In 1968, Lake 2B was impacted by a wildfire that resulted in eutrophication, inferred from a rapid increase in the meso-eutrophic diatom Cyclostephanos in a sediment core. Eutrophic conditions were confirmed by water sampling in 2007 and 2017. Analysis of remote-sensing data revealed that Lake 2B experienced catastrophic drainage in 2012, likely in response to an extreme summer rainfall event. Field sampling confirmed that the lake re-filled between 2017 and 2023, with the re-filling resulting in re-oligotrophication. However, subfossil diatom assemblages showed that Cyclostephanos remained dominant. This contrasts with many temperate lakes, where recovery from eutrophication has been effectively tracked using diatom assemblages. We propose the lake experienced a hysteresis where exposure to an earlier disturbance (wildfire) influenced ecological responses to subsequent disturbance (lake drainage and re-filling). Overall, Lake 2B provides an interesting case study for understanding how interacting climate-related disturbances influence trajectories of Arctic lake ecosystem change, though it remains unclear if other lakes would respond similarly to past wildfires, lake drainage, and re-filling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".