Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Previous studies using an emergent constraint have suggested that climate models underestimate the winter jet stream response to sea ice loss, casting doubt on the quality of mid-latitude climate projections. However, the robustness of this emergent constraint has been questioned. Here, we propose a more robust emergent constraint based on lower stratospheric winds. Using coordinated sea ice loss experiments with bespoke versions of two state-of-the-art climate models along with a multi-model archive, we identify a strong relationship between these winds and the jet stream response. The new emergent constraint reduces the uncertainty in the response by 62% and indicates that the real-world response closely matches the multi-model mean—suggesting no systematic underestimation, in contrast to earlier studies. Our results underscore the importance of reducing lower stratospheric wind biases and increase confidence in climate model projections of a future poleward shift of the jet stream in response to global warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".