Towards Digital Twins in Prostate Cancer: A Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Multitask Prognostics in Hospital Admissions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Early risk prediction is essential for hospitalized prostate cancer (PCa) patients, who face acute events, such as mortality, ICU transfer, AKI (acute kidney injury), ED30 (unplanned 30-day Emergency Department revisit), and prolonged LOS (length of stay). We developed an MMoE (Multitask Mixture-of-Experts) model that jointly predicts these outcomes from the features of the multimodal EHR (Electronic Health Records) in MIMIC-IV (3956 admissions; 2497 patients). A configuration with six experts delivered consistent gains over strong single-task baselines. On the held-out test set, the MMoE improved rare-event detection (mortality AUPRC (Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve) of 0.163 vs. 0.091, +79%) and modestly boosted ED30 discrimination (AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve) ≈0.66 with leakage-safe ClinicalBERT fusion) while maintaining competitive ICU and AKI performance. Expert-routing diagnostics (top-1 shares, entropy, and task-dead counts) revealed clinically coherent specialization (e.g., renal signals for AKI), supporting interpretability. An efficiency log showed that the model is compact and deployable (∼85 k parameters, 0.34 MB; 0.027 s/sample); it replaced five single-task predictors with a single forward pass. Overall, the MMoE offered a practical balance of accuracy, calibrated probabilities, and readable routing for the prognostic layer of digital-twin pipelines in oncology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".