NORTHERN RANGE SHIFTS OF EASTERN GIANT SWALLOWTAIL (HERACLIDES CRESPHONTES) BUTTERFLIES IN ONTARIO: TIMING, EXTENT, AND CLIMATE WARMING
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During a time of range expansion in the late 1800s, the eastern giant swallowtail, Heraclides cresphontes (Cramer, 1777) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), had a Carolinian distribution in Ontario. Subsequently, no substantial change occurred for more than 100 years, except for some minor periodic fluctuation. The species was apparently continuously present at some Carolinian zone localities in the extreme southwest, such as Point Pelee. In 2006, a new expansion began when the butterfly moved into the area at the northeastern end of Lake Ontario, north of Kingston and to Peterborough by 2010. By 2012, the species had become established further north in Ottawa, later becoming more widespread in the Ottawa valley. The main direction of expansion and the butterfly’s continuous presence in newly colonized areas support a range shift. Climate warming is the most likely cause, further supported by lack of evidence for other potential causes such as the decline of ash trees, newly available foodplants, a foodplant preference shift, or transport by humans. Eastern giant swallowtail butterflies moved north elsewhere in the northeast at the same time as they did in Ontario. Other flora and fauna have also moved northward in the province. Together, these observations are part of a large body of ecological evidence that organisms are responding to recent global warming with adapted behaviour and range shifts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".