Was black spruce a good host of the spruce budworm in warmer periods of the Holocene? a long-term reconstruction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the historical variability in the disturbance dynamics of the most important defoliator in eastern Canada, the spruce budworm (SBW), throughout its range will be paramount in anticipating potential changes associated with current climate change. There is growing concerns that black spruce-dominated forests may become increasingly affected by more frequent and severe outbreaks with warmer spring temperatures. Therefore, in this study, we used lepidopteran scales, a novel paleo-proxy found in lake sediments, to reconstruct periods of large spruce budworm populations (LSBP) along a latitudinal gradient and examined the relationship between large population event frequency relative to geographic location over the course of the Holocene in eastern Canada. The synchronous increase in LSBP event frequency in the four lakes observed around 5500 cal. yr BP culminating in maximum event frequency likely resulted from a combination of the northward migration of balsam fir, and low fire frequency. Although favorable Holocene climate conditions appear to have allowed for the expansion of the spruce budworm’s range into more northerly black spruce-dominated stands, event frequency remained low suggesting that the most suitable area for the SBW appears to be in more southern balsamfir-dominated stands.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".