Predicting current and future areas of ecological suitability for <i>Lutzomyia longipalpis</i> sensu lato in the Americas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Leishmania infantum is one of the etiologic agents of leishmaniases in mammals. In the Americas, numerous sand fly species within the Lutzomyia genus drive Leishmania spp. transmission, such as the species complex Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato. It remains unknown if climatic changes could facilitate range expansion of Lu. longipalpis, creating conditions for local transmission in previously non-endemic regions. The objectives of this study were to identify the climatic and environmental variables of importance for Lu. longipalpis, current ecologically suitable area across the Americas, and determine future areas of ecological suitability under 30-year time periods. Occurrence records were obtained from GBIF, WRBU, and literature searches. Historic climate data (1981-2010) and projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 for time periods 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were obtained from CHELSA, along with topographic data from EarthEnv. Using MaxEnt species distribution modelling algorithms, data were incorporated to identify areas which currently are or may become suitable for Lu. longipalpis. Ecological variables such as terrain ruggedness index, number of growing degree days at which mean daily air temperature is above >10 °C, Köppen-Geiger climate classification, and mean daily air temperature of the coldest quarter, were identified as drivers of suitability. Current regions of ecological suitability include areas from the southern United States to northern Argentina. Suitability may expand northward and increase within its current range, specifically in parts of Mexico and Brazil. Findings from this study identify climate and environmental variables impacting Lu. longipalpis distribution, and regions of potential range expansion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".