Modeling Modal Shift of Cyclists and Pedestrians, and Preference of Alternative Services during Temporary Closure of the Macdonald Bridge in Halifax, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents the findings of a mixed logit model that explores the modal shift of active transportation (AT) users of the Angus L. Macdonald Bridge in Halifax, Canada due to the temporary closure of the AT lanes for an extended period of time. It also investigates the preferences of alternative services during the closure, which might address the need of the existing AT users. The modal shift model examines the major determinants that contribute to the shift from AT to other modes, as opposed to being loyal to AT use for the purpose of crossing the bridge. The study uses data from a 2013 questionnaire survey distributed to cyclists and pedestrians who use the Macdonald Bridge in Halifax. The results suggest that commute distance has the greatest influence on modal shift. Additionally, high income individuals are more likely to shift from AT to other modes during the bridge renewal. Conversely, individuals who consider exercise an important reason for using AT will remain loyal to cycling and walking. On the other hand, the model for alternative services includes analysis of four alternatives: 1) free, direct shuttle service; 2) more frequent ferry service; 3) more frequent bus service; and 4) enhancing other services. Mostly, socio-economic, travel attributes and neighbourhood characteristics explain the choice of alternative services. In both models, however, certain travel attributes and neighbourhood characteristics exhibit statistically significant standard deviations
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".