El Niño controls Holocene rabbit and hare populations in Baja California
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic variation worldwide, with significant impacts on modern human and animal populations. However, few detailed records exist on the long-term effects of ENSO on prehistoric vertebrate populations. Here we examine how lagomorph (rabbit and hare) deposition rate, population age structure and taxonomic composition from Abrigo de los Escorpiones, a well-dated, trans-Holocene vertebrate fauna from northern Baja California, Mexico, vary as a function of the frequency of wet El Niño events and eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from eastern Pacific geological records. Faunal indices vary significantly in response to El Niño-based precipitation and SST, with substantial moisture-driven variability in the middle and late Holocene. The late Holocene moisture pulse is coincident with previously documented changes in the population dynamics of other vertebrates, including humans. As the frequency and intensity of ENSO is anticipated to vary in the future, these results have important implications for change in future vertebrate populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".