Local topography is more important than climate as a determinant of regional alpine plant diversity in southwestern British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mountain ecosystems are considered highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and are experiencing a magnitude of change that far exceeds global averages, particularly with respect to increases in average temperature and precipitation. As such, scientists are predicting a rapid habitat reduction or even the loss of the coolest climatic alpine zones, thus threatening the continued survival of high elevation specialists. However, many of these ‘doomsday’ predictions are based primarily on models with coarse-resolution changes to atmospheric climate parameters, and do not take into account the potential buffering effects of other environmental gradients known to structure alpine plant communities, related to topography and soils. To assess the accuracy of predictions regarding the state of vulnerability of alpine plant communities to climate change, this thesis examined the relative importance of climate, topography and soils as determinants of regional alpine plant diversity for all species, as well as for forbs, graminoids and woody species separately, in alpine meadows of southwestern British Columbia. Through redundancy analyses and variation partitioning, results show that topography and soils are more important than climate as determinants of regional alpine plant diversity. Within these groups, elevation, slope, soil moisture and mean summer temperature were most significant. Interestingly, precipitation played only a small role, even though the study area spanned a precipitation gradient of over 1200 mm/year. The stronger influence of temperature, especially for woody species beta diversity, supports findings of shrub expansion in arctic-alpine systems. The lower importance of climate as a determinant of regional alpine plant diversity, especially for forbs, the dominant life form in alpine meadow ecosystems, suggests that these productive environments may be more resilient to on-going changes in atmospheric climate conditions than previously believed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".