Empirische Analyse der Preisbildung im österreichischen Regelenergiemarkt
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The imbalance of electricity production and demand is equalized through the activation of the control reserve of energy in a specific control area to guarantee a constant netfrequency.The emerging costs of the control reserve are much higher in austria than in germany in due consideration of the relative amount of energy.In this thesis the formation of prices of the AFRR(Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve) in austria will be analysed from 01.01.2016 till 08.10.2017.There will be an examination of the influence of Intraday-Stops on the capacity and energy prices relating to the AFFR-Cooperation with Germany.Generated time series of accepted capacity and energy prices are giving an overview of price fixing before and after the start of the AFFR-Cooperation.These prices according to the Intraday-Stops, which are considered as hours per week, will be displayed in a X/Ydiagram.Econometric models of the calling energy prices and their amount influenced by Intraday-Stops are reviewed with linear regression analysis in a quarter hourly time resolution.The pricing of the capacity prices of the AFFR are influenced by the power plant stock in austria and seasonal circumstances.There is no effect of Intraday-Stops on these prices.The results of the regression analysis reveal an advance in calling energy prices caused by Intraday-Stops in some calendar weeks.The comparison of average energy prices connected with variable amounts of energy proves an inflation relating to higher amounts of energy and Intraday-Stops after the beginning of the AFFR-Cooperation.iii Kurzfassung Die Regelreserve dient dem Ausgleich des Ungleichgewichtes zwischen Erzeugung und Verbrauch elektrischer Leistung einer Regelzone um eine stabile Netzfrequenz zu gewährleisten.Die entstehenden Kosten dieser Regelreserve sind im relativen Mengenvergleich zum Nachbarland Deutschland überproportional hoch.Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden die Mechanismen der Preisbildungen des österreichischen Sekundärregelreservemarktes vom 01.01.2016 bis 08.10.2017analysiert.Dabei werden die Auswirkungen der Intraday-Stops auf die Leistungs-und Arbeitspreise in Zusammenhang mit der Sekundärregelreservekooperation mit Deutschland untersucht.Zeitreihen der zugeschlagenen Leistungs-und Arbeitspreise geben einen Überblick der Preisentwicklungen vor und nach dem Marktzusammenschluss. Diese Preise werden in Abhängigkeit der Intraday-Stops, welche mit Stunden pro Woche gewichtet sind, in einem X/Y Diagramm dargestellt.Ökonometrische Modelle der Abrufpreise und ihrer zugehörigen Mengen werden in Zusammenhang mit den Unterbrechungen des Intraday-Handels in einem Zeitraster von 15 Minuten mit Hilfe von Regressionsanalysen untersucht.Die Bildung der Leistungspreise der Sekundärregelreserve ist abhängig vom Kraftwerksbestand in Österreich sowie von saisonalen Gegebenheiten.Ein Zusammenhang mit Intraday-Stops scheint allerdings nicht gegeben zu sein.Die Ergebnisse der Regressionsanalysen ergeben einen Preissteigerungseffekt der Abrufpreise durch Intraday-Stops in einzelnen Kalenderwochen.Ein Vergleich der durchschnittlichen Regelenergiepreise unterschiedlicher Abrufmengen beweist eine Preissteigerung bei höheren Regelenergiemengen in Verbindung mit Intraday-Stops nach dem Marktzusammenschluss.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".