Ice decay boundaries for the ice regime system: recommendations from a scientific analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Canadian Ice Regime System takes into account the decay of sea ice by allowing the addition of +1 to the Ice Multiplier for ice that is deemed to be decayed. The AIRSS definition of decay relates to the surface properties of the ice such that decayed ice is defined as ice that has thaw holes or is at the "rotten" stage. This report examines this approach based on an analysis of the strength of first-year sea ice, second-year sea ice, multi-year sea ice, and the damage statistics for Arctic vessels. The analysis shows that there is no quantitative scientific basis for the current AIRSS approach of taking into account the decay of sea ice in the Ice Regime System. The analysis further shows that the decay of sea ice can be quantified in a meaningful manner. The report provides a detailed discussion of the analysis with recommendations for modifying AIRSS to account for the decay of sea ice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.032 | 0.052 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.015 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".