Data for: Trends, Reversion, and Critical Phenomena in Financial Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
These data accompany the publication "Trends, Reversion, and Critical Phenomena in Financial Markets". They contain daily data from Jan 1992 to Dec 2019 on 24 financial markets, namely - 6 equity indices: S&P 500, TSE 60, DAX 30, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng - 6 Interest rates for government bonds: US 10-year, Canada 10-year, Germany 10-year, UK 10-year, Japan 10-year, Australia 3-year - 6 FX rates: CAD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - 6 Commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper, Soybeans, Live Cattle The data are provided in 13 columns: - Column 1: date - Column 2: market - Column 3: daily log return of futures on that market, normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 over the 28-year time period - Columns 4-13: trend strengths in that market over 10 different time horizons of (2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024) business days. The trend strengths are defined in the accompanying paper. They are cut off at plus/minus 2.5. The daily log returns were computed from daily futures prices, rolled 5 days prior to first notice, which were taken from Bloomberg. The following mean returns and volatilites were used to normalize the daily log returns in column 3: Market Mean St. Dev. S&P 500 2.217% 1.100% TSE 60 2.416% 1.067% DAX 30 1.199% 1.366% FTSE 100 1.053% 1.103% Nikkei 225 -0.483% 1.486% Hang Seng 0.768% 1.674% US 10-year 3.734% 0.366% Can. 10-year 3.637% 0.376% Ger. 10-year 4.141% 0.337% UK 10-year 2.983% 0.419% Jap. 10-year 4.453% 0.249% Aus. 3-year 3.029% 0.074% CAD/USD 0.048% 0.479% EUR/USD -0.222% 0.619% GBP/USD 0.316% 0.597% JPY/USD -0.761% 0.667% AUD/USD 0.851% 0.725% NZD/USD 1.563% 0.724% Crude Oil 0.093% 2.243% Natural Gas -2.649% 2.985% Gold 0.580% 0.987% Copper 0.936% 1.586% Soybeans 0.631% 1.360% Live Cattle 0.483% 0.894%
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.158 | 0.107 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".