Species differences in phenology shape coexistence
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ecological theory produces opposing predictions about whether differences in the timing of life history transitions, or ‘phenology’, promote or limit coexistence. Phenological separation is predicted to create temporal niche differences, increasing coexistence, yet phenological separation could also competitively favour one species, increasing fitness differences and hindering coexistence. We experimentally manipulated relative germination timing, a critical phenological event, of two annual grass species, Vulpia microstachys and V. octoflora, to test these contrasting predictions. We parameterized a competition model to estimate within-season niche differences, fitness differences, and coexistence, and to estimate coexistence when year-to-year fluctuations of germination timing occur. Increasing germination separation caused parallel changes in niche and fitness differences, with the net effect of weakening within-year coexistence. Both species experienced a competitive advantage by germinating earlier and a four-day head start allowed the generally inferior competitor to exclude the otherwise superior competitor. The overall consequence of germination separation was to limit coexistence within a given year, although year-to-year variation in relative timing of germination was sufficient to support long-term coexistence. Our results clarify how phenological differences structure competitive interactions and highlight the need to quantify year-to-year variation in these differences to better understand species coexistence.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.088 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it