Pneumococcal Disease Trends in the Post-Vaccine Era in Calgary, Canada: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: In 2002 the 4-dose 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced in Calgary for vaccination of children, followed by the 3-dose 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) in 2010. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis on incidence of IPD per quarter allowing for change in trends in 2002 and 2010. We included models for IPD overall and age and serotype restricted models. Results: The incidence of PCV7 IPD (all ages) decreased after PCV7 introduction in 2002 (P<0.001) and was sustained after PCV13 introduction in 2010. In children, the incidence of PCV13 (less PCV7 ST) IPD increased in children after PCV7 introduction (P<0.001) and decreased after PCV13 introduction (P=0.002). After PCV7 introduction, overall IPD incidence was lower in children, but not significant, (P=0.054) and was unchanged in adults (P=0.4721). After PCV13 introduction, overall IPD incidence was unchanged in children (P=0.88) and increased in adults (P<0.001). Conclusions: PCV7 IPD has declined in the post-PCV period, but overall IPD had not declined significantly and was increasing in adults prior to the precipitous decline observed in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. PCV13 serotypes, as well as non-vaccine serotypes, continue to cause disease, including outbreaks of serotype 4, 5, and 8. It is unclear whether the change from 4 doses to 3 doses of PCV has reduced overall vaccine effectiveness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".